Sunday, December 9, 2018

Trump on the precipice and China's rage

Canada's detainment of Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of Huawei's founder, has the Chinese livid. This happened in Canada at the request of the U.S. for the firm's alleged violations of Iran sanctions. 

The Chinese government is urging Canada to release Ms. Meng, and it should. The U.S. has other ways to pursue sanctions with multinational firms, and it ought take those routes instead. 

If Ms. Meng is extradited to the U.S., China's anger will likely grow. China Daily writes: "Canada has treated Meng as a dangerous criminal, handcuffing her at the airport and making her wear angle restraints after her first bail hearing." 

If Ms. Meng is treated the same way we treat cartel drug lords, public opinion in China toward the U.S. may nosedive. It will become harder for the U.S. to resolve trade issues and scale down tensions over the South China Sea and Taiwan. 

The Iranian sanctions have never stopped U.S. technology from ending up in Iran. U.S. equipment can arrive in Iran via other Middle Eastern countries. 

Meanwhile, President Trump seems thoroughly distracted by the special counsel investigation and now appears vulnerable to impeachment. 

Trump, at this moment, seems wholly incapable of resolving the problems with China, and China may conclude this as well. It's best strategy may be to wait and see how Congress responds to special counsel Robert Mueller's forthcoming report. But the immediate problem concerns Ms. Meng, and hopefully Canada will find a way to release her quickly. 

And how does this impact Guam? It won't help with Chinese tourism or relations. 

Monday, September 3, 2018

The pending U.S. destruction of Pagan and Tinian islands

The U.S. is turning a significant portion of Micronesia into live fire and bombing ranges to train Marines. It has plans to completely take over one island for this purpose and has control of two-thirds of another island.

If people in the U.S. mainland understood the military's plan for Micronesia they might be alarmed. But this is really happening to U.S. citizens living in America's territories.

This is a result of the U.S. Navy’s plans to relocate 5,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam, where the U.S. has three major bases. But Guam -- even at 212 square miles -- is not suitable for this type of live fire training because of its relatively large population of 160,000 plus people.

The 18-square mile Pagan Island was evacuated in the early 1980s because of volcanic eruptions, although a handful of people have reportedly returned. Others want to resettle, but from the government's point of view, Pagan has no legal residents. 

On Pagan, the government will drop bombs as large as 1,000 pounds and turn the island into a ruined "wasteland," say the people of this region. Chemicals from military activities will leech into the soil and water supply, say opponents. 

The situation is a little different for Tinian Island. The U.S. controls 71% of the 39-square mile Tinian, which has a population of about 3,200. The U.S. plans to fire rockets, explode grenades, fire artillery and conduct amphibious landings.  There may be health consequences possibly from hazardous dust, noise and disruption. The quality of life for the people of Tinian will likely decline considerably. Residents worry that many will leave the island. 

The U.S. has been doing what it pleases since Bikini

If this sounds familiar, it should. 

The U.S. has been using the Pacific islands for military development since it forcibly removed the Bikini Atoll natives in 1946, so it could explode nuclear weapons. Not much has changed since.

A collection of indigenous and environmental groups challenged the U.S. Defense Dept. plans, but they recently lost their case in federal court.

This case was decided in the U.S. District Court in the Northern Mariana Island mostly on a single question: Did the U.S. follow its procedures for taking over Pagan Island and stepping up military training on Tinian?

The court ignored the most important issue 

The court, in its 41-page summary judgment ruling released Aug. 31, completely ignored the issue that should have been core to the case: Will the military's plans destroy a way of life, and endanger the health and environment of the people in this region?  

The questions ought to be huge. Instead, the court found that the government followed its processes. As a result, Pagan Island will be as good as erased off the map, and Tinian Island residents may face environmental and health risks. 

The opponents can appeal, but the odds are long.

The groups challenging this want the government to really assess the environmental damage, health risks and spiritual harm this activity will bring. That is what this case should have been about. But the court was unwilling to do so. Instead, it was decided on mostly technicalities: Has the U.S. followed its procedures for creating military bombing ranges?

Environmental and spiritual destruction

Marjorie Daria, a resident of Tinian and a member of the Tinian Women Association, filed this supporting declaration in the court case, and wrote this:

“I have spiritual interests in the preservation of Tinian. As a child I was taught the legends of my people and the spirits that still walk on our grounds, and that certain spirits occupy certain trees.

“Before I enter the jungle, I say a prayer and ask permission to enter. My beliefs compel me to act in ways that protect and respect Tinian. There are a few hidden locations around the airfield that I like to visit on a quarterly basis.

“One of them used to be a military storage facility that was bombed several years ago. Leading to the storage facility is a beautiful walkway encased with trees and branches, where birds sing, and the roots of these trees are entangled along this dirt wall, and the place is spiritual to me, because it reminds me of the damages caused by war and how peace can easily be disrupted.”

"If the Navy is allowed to carry out its plans to station thousands of Marines on Guam, those Marines would have to train on Tinian, subjecting the island to explosives, hand grenades, mortars, rockets, and artillery, and the accompanying noise, pollution, health risks, and environmental damage. It would cause the loss of native species, loss of biological and cultural diversity, loss of agricultural land, damage to the coral reef and other marine resources, loss of access to traditional fishing areas, lost productivity of traditional fisheries, damage to and loss of access to cultural and historical resources, harm to the tourism industry that is vital to the local economy and well-being of Tinian residents, and restrictions on travel between Tinian and Saipan, Rota, and other CNMI islands, as well as travel to Guam and the Philippines. It would make subsistence farming and fishing more challenging and less productive. It would disturb the tranquility of life here.

Daria warned that the military's plan "may well drive many of the people of Tinian away from the island, ripping the fabric of our community bonds"

The risks for people without political power 

The Tinian islanders will face a number of health risks. This include kicking up dust, and because of the types of minerals on the island, it may cause silicosis, a scarring of the lungs. There will be the danger of errant bombs. 

Tinian residents will face restrictions on when they can leave the island, a serious issue for people needing urgent medical care. The environment will degrade, and the risk to coral, sea life and animal life on the island is considerable.

Tinian and Pagan are part of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), a U.S. Territory. They have no political representation in Congress.

If the U.S. plan goes through, the military will fully control 24% of the landmass of the commonwealth.

This will likely be the first of many lawsuits. It would not be surprising to see lawsuits seeking reparations for Pagan residents. One can imagine Tinian residents bringing a flurry of lawsuits over environmental damage, health harms and flight restrictions. The U.S. will pay out money, but it will stay with its defense goals. 

Keli A. Tenorio, a former Pagan resident, who wants to return to the Pagan island to live, wrote in a court brief:

“If our people were forced to live with the military on Pagan, the ground would shake, there would be loud noises, and our homes would be in danger of damage. The soil, air and water would be polluted by toxic chemicals contained in the ammunition, bombs, mortars, etc. that the military will dump on Pagan. The chemicals would seep into the water lenses and poison everything. Our wildlife, which we depend upon as our main source of food, will be detrimentally disrupted.

“Just over the ridge to the east side of Pagan, there are forty agricultural homesteads marked out and ready to distribute to our people. It would both ludicrous and foolish to think our people, plants and animals can thrive in such a close, noisy, and dangerous place as a result of continued bombardment from military training activities. Such activities will leave us with no way to feed our families or sustain our cultural and traditional practices,”
wrote Tenorio. 

Connecting the dots to Bikini

In the decades after their removal, Bikini Atoll residents challenged the government in federal court. Although many years separate those residents from present day, the problem is similar. 

A failed federal lawsuit by the Bikini residents, who were seeking reparations, said this:

“On January 10, 1946, President Harry Truman approved the use of Bikini Atoll for three nuclear tests, code-named ‘Operation Crossroads.' One month later, on Sunday, Feb 10, 1946, the American military governor of the Marshall Islands, U.S. Navy Commodore Ben Wyatt, flew by seaplane to Bikini to speak to the people and their leader, Juda, at the conclusion of Bikinians’ church services. 

"Official Navy records reported that Wyatt told the Bikinians 'of the bomb that men in America had made and of the destruction it had wrought upon the enemy” and that the Americans “are trying to learn how to use it for the good of mankind and to end all world wars.” He then asked: “Would Juda and his people be willing to sacrifice their island(s) for the welfare of all men?” The Bikinians were told that they would be allowed to return of their atoll in a matter of months when the United States no longer needed it for Operational Crossroads.”

“The Bikinians did not wish to leave their atoll. But, in view of the United States’ defeat of Japan and Commodore’s Wyatt’s description of nuclear weapons, they believed themselves powerless to resist the United States decision.”

The Bikinians gave up their land -- which remains uninhabitable to this day -- because of America’s geopolitical interests. They were powerless, and the fate had been decided. The same thing is happening again in Micronesia.

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Trump administration is reckless and arrogant on climate

The Trump administration has decided that climate change is a hoax. It is telling future generations they have nothing to worry about. 'Hey, it might get a little warmer, but you'll like it and so will the plants. This talk about a 4F-6F degree rise by the end of the century is just nonsense. Kids: You'll be just fine.'

And people get upset about the so-called "alarmist?" The opposite of this is what the Trump administration is giving us: People who are so arrogant and reckless that they simply do not care.

The Trump administration position is just shocking. It is going to allow more electric generation via coal and it is going to fight the tough vehicle emission rules in California. 

Fortunately, the U.S. military has adopted a position that climate change is real and will lead to world-wide disruption. Not surprising. The military requires people who are smart, disciplined, have integrity, character, and can respond to rapidly changing situations. They don't imagine the world as they want it to be, they deal with the world as it is. 

That's why the U.S. Navy will rely on solar for part of electrical generation needs on Guam. Economically it makes sense, especially on Guam. But I tend to believe that morally, the Navy thinks it's right thing to do as well.

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Guam's support of a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump isn’t about Trump

A Nobel Peace Prize for President Donald Trump? I can honestly see Guam Gov. Eddie Calvo making a tactical decision to sign a letter – along with six other Republican governors – to support a Nobel Prize for Trump for his efforts on North Korea.

For sure, Trump and the South Korean leadership has made progress. North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, seems interested in achieving something. But achieving what? There is a lot of uncertainty ahead.

When Guam was under missile threat from North Korea, Calvo took the opportunity to tell people about Guam. That was to Guam's plus. A lot of people have no real understanding about Guam and its relationship to the U.S. Calvo made effective use of the national stage.

But signing this letter seems to carry the rah-rah Trump campaign a little too far. Maybe signing the letter was calculated.

Guam is highly dependent on the federal government and you don't want to get on Trump's bad side, especially if you have zero political clout in Washington.

But backing Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize? Maybe Calvo genuinely believes Trump deserves it. But based on what, exactly? All we have is a tentative meeting ahead and a reduction in tensions that can easily dial up.

The real reason I suspect Calvo signed that letter is because the federal government has enormous control on Guam and the region.

Will Trump proceed with plans to turn beautiful Pagan Island into a military bombing range?

Will Trump bring the military build-up to Tinian?

Will Trump escalate Guam's military buildup and bring environmental ruin?

Does Trump even care about Guam? I suspect this is what worries Calvo.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Guam, ban the plastic bags!

Washington DC imposed a 5 cent fee on plastic bags in 2010. A few years later, a survey was taken to assess the impact. Source: District Dept. of the Environment

Guam should be credited for considering a ban on plastic bags. It doesn't need the blight.

In Washington DC they took a middle-of-the-road approach and imposed a 5 cent fee on the bags. The idea was to discourage their use. It seems to be working.

A lot of people can afford the 5 cent fee, but the fee was also coupled with awareness about the impact of the bags on the environment. It took effect in 2010, and since then surveys find that 80% of DC residents are using fewer bags. Environmentalists have reported a positive impact on the local rivers.

A ban is more extreme, but in Guam's case it's the best course. This is one of the most beautiful places in the world, but it's going to be stressed more than ever in the years ahead.

The military build-up will stress on all aspects of the island's environment. Banning the plastic bag is a way of fighting back and taking control. Hopefully the military exchanges will act in a similar manner, if they aren't doing so already.

People will complain, for sure, but they will adapt.

The petition makes a compelling case for action.

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

PSA: March for our Lives

This is the most important thing to happen in some time. The students who are organizing this are truly the best we can be, and deserve tremendous credit. Congress has failed to deal with anything related to gun control. It couldn't even bring itself to ban bump stocks. Inaction translates to disregard for the lives of innocents.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

B-2 bombers on Guam and the real Duty to Warn

Business Insider recently published a story with an alarming headline: “US stealth bombers in Guam appear to be readying for a tactical nuclear strike on North Korea.”  Well, no.

The U.S. deployment of B-2 bombers to Guam signals nothing. The U.S. has deployed B-2 bombers to Guam for years. Andersen Air Force Base is only base in the Western Pacific capable of supporting large bombers, such as the B-52.

The Business Insider story doesn’t back up the flame-bait headline, because it can't. President Donald Trump’s strategy on North Korea is unclear. But if you want insights into what Trump might do please read “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump.”

This book is a collection of essays by 27 psychiatrists and mental health experts. This community follows the Goldwater Rule, a professional guideline that prohibits mental health professionals from diagnosing a public official without examining the person. But with Trump, a counter-movement has emerged called “Duty to Warn.”

“Duty to Warn” argues that psychiatrists already have a responsibility to alert authorities if a patient informs them, for instance, of a plan to commit a violent act. The psychiatrist believe they have a similar duty about Trump because his behavior is putting the nation at risk. The authors president a formidable case against Trump as unstable. 

The consensus view on North Korea is any military action will be horrific and will risk nuclear confrontation.  What really scares is the possibility that Trump will goad North Korea’s leader into doing something reckless -- something that gives U.S. a thin reason to take military action. This administration may be hunting for justification. 

If not for North Korea, a leading area of concern might be China's island and military base building in the South China Sea. An excellent book on that risk is “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap,” by Graham Allison.

Sending some B-2 bombers to Guam tells us nothing about Trump or the U.S. plan, if there is one. But the real danger here isn’t North Korea or China. It's our leadership and its very real potential for bad decision making. 

Sunday, January 21, 2018

America's day begins on Guam, and so does the government shutdown

Photo: "Area Closed For Turf Restoration" by Patrick Thibodeau, 2017 

If you're reading this right now, it's Sunday, about 6 p.m. or 1800 hours Eastern. It's 9 a.m.  Monday, on Guam, the place where the government shutdown begins in earnest.

Guam has about 4,000 federal civilian workers, which makes up about 6.5% of Guam's roughly 64,000 civilian workforce.

Guam is known as the place where "America's day begins," because of its location in the Pacific. It's the first part of America to see the start of the new day.

But for our purposes, this is also the place where the federal government shutdown impact truly begins.

The government shutdown has been affecting jobs on Guam since the shutdown began Saturday, Eastern Time. But Monday is the day that the impact will be felt.

It's not fully clear what federal services will be impacted on Guam. The PNC has a rundown of what's known so far.