A
prediction: Casino gambling on Saipan will lead to a casino on Guam.
I’d
bet on it.
Saipan’s
new casino will siphon tourist traffic. As time goes on, Guam lawmakers will
face pressure to allow a casino.
What
will happen in Micronesia, has happened in the U.S. Let’s take New England as
an example.
Connecticut
allowed casino gambling after reaching an agreement in 1992 with the
Mashantucket Pequots. Slot machines were illegal in the state and the Pequots
needed state approval for them. The state agreed to slot machines in exchange
for 25% of the revenue.
The
Pequots opened a Las Vegas-style casino, Foxwoods, which became very
profitable. It was the only casino in New England.
This
put pressure on neighboring states to open casinos. Rhode Island now has a
casino and Massachusetts is building them as well.
In
fact, Massachusetts allowed a casino in Springfield near the Connecticut
border. Connecticut now wants a casino near the state line, 12 miles from
Springfield's casino. The goal is to keep Connecticut gamblers from crossing
the state border.
Gamblers
have little loyalty to any casino. They will go to the casino closest to them.
This helps drive the growth of casinos. State lawmakers don’t want their
residents gambling in a neighboring state.
Guam
and Saipan are only separated by 135 miles. For travelers from China and Japan
there is little difference in travel time. They might as well be neighboring
states.
Saipan’s
Imperial Pacific may generate more investment and tourism. This may be to
Guam’s disadvantage.
As
Saipan tourism grows, Guam’s lawmakers will feel compelled to take up the
casino issue. The arguments will be powerful. A casino will provide a viable
alternative for tourists considering Saipan.
But
casinos impose a terrible cost. Having a casino on Guam will lead to problem
gambling. They bring ruin to vulnerable families. Casino’s operate 24 x 7. This
will increase the drunk driving risks. Crime may rise as well.
Opposition
on Guam to a casino will be fierce. Guam’s faith community will issue strong
warnings about the damage to families. Religious leaders may succeed in holding
Guam back. But the Saipan casino, especially if it's successful, will be corrosive on public debate. As
time goes on, lawmaker resistance weakens.
The
casino debate in Massachusetts lasted some two decades. The resistance of
lawmakers to casinos has all but collapsed in America. Indeed, President Donald
Trump was a casino operator.
Thanks
to Saipan, a new debate about casinos on Guam is inevitable.
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